Re: airliner market analysis [long]

Date:         18 Apr 98 00:49:40 
From:         kls@ohare.Chicago.COM (Karl Swartz)
Organization: Chicago Software Works, Menlo Park, California
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> EHaase2463> Couldn't the 757-300 be successful in the U.S. on high
> EHaase2463> volume, short distance routes?
>
>The 757-300 has a listed range (Boeing's website) of 4,000 statue miles
>carrying 243 passengers in a "typical mixed class configuration". I
>wouldn't count 4,000 miles as "short distance".

No, 4,000 miles isn't a "short distance."  But it's not relevant,
either.  Or maybe it is, if the plane has too much range (i.e., it
is too heavy and has overly powerful engines for the intended job
and thus is uneconomical to operate).  A 747-400IGW is certainly
capable of flying many "high volume, short distance routes" in the
US, but it's not likely to be successful (read "cost effective") at
doing so.

That said, the success of the 757-200 in the US market suggests that
the 757-300 wouldn't suffer too much of an "overrange" penalty.

> EHaase2463> I know that Delta uses L-1011's on some high volume, short
> EHaase2463> distance routes in the U.S.  Wouldn't the 757-300 work well
> EHaase2463> on these routes? Do you think that Delta will merely use its
> EHaase2463> older 767's on these routes as the L-1011's are phased out?
...
>Delta had been searching for a Tristar replacement for years
>(and the 777 wasn't it - too big).

While Delta has a fondness for large planes (their average seat count
per plane on domestic routes is the highest in the US, beyond even
United which uses a sizable number of 747s on domestic routes), the
general trend has been to replace DC-10/L-1011 class planes with smaller
aircraft operating greater frequencies.  The DC-10 replacement at United
has largely been the 757-200 and A320.  At American, it's been the
757-200 and MD-80.

> EHaase2463> The 757-300 appears to be the largest single-aisle plane ever
> EHaase2463> built by Boeing (possibly the U.S. - I know that some of the
> EHaase2463> DC-8's were stretched quite a bit).

>I'm sure Karl Swartz will quote passenger count on the longest stretched
>DC-8s (Karl loves the DC-8 :-).

<grin>

According to http://www.boeing.com/, the 757-300 beats even the
DC-8-61/63, with a maximum of 279 passengers versus only 259 for the
longest DC-8 models.

178'7"

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