Re: airliner market analysis [long]

Date:         18 Apr 98 00:49:39 
From:         Helen Rose <hrose@rocza.kei.com>
Organization: Kapor Enterprises, Inc.
References:   1 2
Followups:    1 2
Next article
View raw article
  or MIME structure

EHaase2463> == EHaase2463  <ehaase2463@aol.com>

 EHaase2463> Why is the 757-300 not selling well?  I read that Boeing
 EHaase2463> hoped to sell it to customers replacing the L-1011 and DC-10.
 EHaase2463> Couldn't the 757-300 be successful in the U.S. on high
 EHaase2463> volume, short distance routes?

The 757-300 has a listed range (Boeing's website) of 4,000 statue miles
carrying 243 passengers in a "typical mixed class configuration". I
wouldn't count 4,000 miles as "short distance".

 EHaase2463> I know that Delta uses L-1011's on some high volume, short
 EHaase2463> distance routes in the U.S.  Wouldn't the 757-300 work well
 EHaase2463> on these routes? Do you think that Delta will merely use its
 EHaase2463> older 767's on these routes as the L-1011's are phased out?

Delta's designated replacement for the L1011-1 are L1011-500 in the short
term (L1011-1s are being pulled out of service and replaced on domestic
routes by previously international L1011-500s). The L1011-1 (think
"domestic version") has a range of 3,240 miles (DL's website) and seats
300 passengers in a 2 class configuration.

The L1011-500 has a range of 5,300 miles (again, DL's website) and seats
only 218 passengers. So while one could argue the L1011-500 and 757-300
are in the same vague class, it's a bit of a push, especially because DL
really wanted a L1011 class plane for *domestic* traffic. And they found
one. And Boeing sells it. It's the 767-400. 245 passengers in 3 class
config (304 in 2 class). The 767-400 has a range of 6,400 miles.

So Delta will be able to deploy the 767-400 to replace *either* long range
routes formerly operated by the L1011-500 (which are being pulled out of
international service by the way, and being replaced by 767-*300s*, at
exactly the same seat count in a 3-class config (218)), or short range
high density routes (269 passengers in 2 class, so about 30 less than the
L1011-1). Delta had been searching for a Tristar replacement for years
(and the 777 wasn't it - too big).

 EHaase2463> The 757-300 appears to be the largest single-aisle plane ever
 EHaase2463> built by Boeing (possibly the U.S. - I know that some of the
 EHaase2463> DC-8's were stretched quite a bit).

I'm sure Karl Swartz will quote passenger count on the longest stretched
DC-8s (Karl loves the DC-8 :-). The 757-300 *is* a long single-aisle
plane, yes. It has been aimed at mostly European charter operators. I'm
actually quite surprised that more of them haven't ordered it. Just think
how many passengers they can cram into a space that seats 243 in a mixed
class (probably close to 300 in a single class 29" seat pitch. ouch. You
and your 299 closest friends :-).

--Helen