Re: airliner market analysis [long]

Date:         24 Mar 98 11:38:55 
From:         Marc Schaeffer <>
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H Andrew Chuang wrote:
> For regional jets, technology and commonality may not be very important.

I have to say that I don't -- fully -- agrre with this one. From a
maintenance, training and spare parts point of view it would be pretty
smart to have a certain commonality. Even in the regional jet market.
The first manufacturer to have a family of a/c will survive the battle.
I believe that two a/c are not a family (EMB135&145 and CRJ50&70). Three
should be the right number of members for a family ;)

This is what makes the success of the 737 and the 320 familys in the
upper segment. (3 and in the near future 4 a/c for each family). Also
the DC9 had the same strategy to come to it's glory. Of course an a/c
needs to have other advantages, commonailty isn't everthing.

OTOH American (?) ordered EMB145RJ and CRJ70 instead of CRJ50&70,
showing that if the purchase price of an a/c is very low, the above
logic is no longer valid.  Nevertheless I would say that the cost
splitting (purchase price/ total maintenance and training costs) must be
pretty similar in both market segments.

> Don't forget, the US is still the largest market for these regional jets.
> Many of the regional jet operators in the US are not directly tied to
> major Boeing and Airbus operators.

Right. But the aim of the new-baby-boeing (717) is to get new customers
in the lower segment.

> The 767 has always be strong in the US and relatively weak in Asia and
> Europe.  The 764 will not change this trend.  Nevertheless, if AA also
> orders the 764, the 764 will have a very solid customer base, even though
> they are all US customers.

What is your opinion, will the 763 be replaced mainly with the 764 or
the 332 ?

> I didn't mean to be complete.  I also did not mention anything on the B757.
> The Trent 500 and PW4XXX have all been proposed as alternative powerplants
> for the B767-400.  I doubt an A310 replacement is high on Airbus's
> development list.

IIRC I read an interview in the 25 years of AI issue of FI that they
intend to launch an A310NG, once the Trent 500 engines are running. Kind
of mix between the RR T500, A310 body and A320 controls. Should be
pretty cheap to launch. Of course this makes only sense if there is a
market for such a bird ...

Marc Schaeffer, Luxembourg --