Re: airliner market analysis [long]

Date:         13 Mar 98 03:35:30 
From:         Marc Schaeffer <marcmscREMOVE_TO_REPLY@cmdnet.lu>
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Karl Swartz wrote:
> The A340-500/600 has already been launched, and now has over 100 orders.

Yes I know that the 340NG has been launched ;) What I meant was a really
big order which would boost the program. Concerning the 100 orders, I
can't agree :

                Orders  LOI  Options
Total           10       46        66
Virgin           8        -         8
Egyptair         2        -         2
EVA              -        6         6
A. Canada        -        5        15
Swissair         -        9         9
Lufthansa        -       10        10+
A. France        -       10        10?
Emirates         -        6         6

This table has been established with public information and some 'good
links'. LH has a lot of options on the 330/340 family which they may
convert either way (332 or 346). AF has signed the LOI for the 346 long
time ago and should be one of the two unannounced customers, the others
should be Emirates. Total commitments would be 122 but with only 10 firm
orders.

> I read something a week or so ago saying the SIA order for a super long-
> range airliner would be less than ten units, so they certainly won't be
> the first "really big" order for the A340-500 if they go that way.

Right, when I posted my mail I hadn't read this article.

> Virgin
> Atlantic, for example, chose the A340 over the 777 in part because they
> would have had to fritter away the 777s for about six months while they
> gained sufficient experience for ETOPS.

Since the 777 got ETOPS from day one on, did this only apply to VS as
they only operate 4-engine a/c ??

>  No, because Boeing stopped offering the 767-200 years ago.

Hmmm .... looking at the '98 prices for Boeing a/c the list price for
the 762ER is 83.0 - 93.0 M$ !!

Rgds,
...........................................................
Marc Schaeffer, Luxembourg -- mailto:marcmsc@cmdnet.lu
WWW  http://www.geocities.com/CapeCanaveral/Lab/8803/
The DE HAVILLAND COMET and AIRCRAFT ORDERS website