Re: airliner market analysis [long]

Date:         13 Mar 98 03:35:29 
From: (H Andrew Chuang)
Organization: Concentric Internet Services
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In article <airliners.1998.412@ohare.Chicago.COM>,
Karl Swartz <kls@ohare.Chicago.COM> wrote:
>>SIA will always get a good deal as they may 'really' launch the 345/6 or
>>772/3X. So far the commitments for the 345/6 don't include a really big order
>>of over 15 firm a/c.
>The A340-500/600 has already been launched, and now has over 100 orders.

100 "commitments" not orders.  These commitments include options.
Announced firm orders (include letters of intent) consist of 9 -600s
from Swissair, 2 -600s from EgyptAir, 8 -600s from Virgin Atlantic,
10 -600s from Lufthansa, 6 -500s from EVA Air, and 5(?) from Air Canada
(I don't remember AC's that well).  That's only 40.  Emirates seems to
be the seventh customer, and I doubt it will place more than 6 firm
orders.  Furthermore, I don't think EVA Air's order is a done deal.

>I read something a week or so ago saying the SIA order for a super long-
>range airliner would be less than ten units, so they certainly won't be
>the first "really big" order for the A340-500 if they go that way.

With only 8 or 9 announced intended orders for the A340-500 (from EVA and
Air Canada), ten units will more than double the order book! ;-)

Although, SIA may need only 10 A340-500s or B777-200Xs, it will also need
a significant number of A340-600s or B777-300Xs.  Thus, my guess is SIA
will order between 20 to 25 of A340-500/600s or B777-200X/300Xs.

>>This is also my opinion, but there has been no order for the 773 for 2.5
>>years. This derivative will really start to be interesting if Boeing will
>>stop to produce the 744 which would be a direct rival to the 773X.
>The 777-300 is significantly smaller than the 747-400, thought the
>difference is not huge.  In addition, the ETOPS issue is real -- Virgin
>Atlantic, for example, chose the A340 over the 777 in part because they
>would have had to fritter away the 777s for about six months while they
>gained sufficient experience for ETOPS.  That and size will keep the 747
>in the Boeing catalog for a while yet.

I thought Virgin intended to use the A340-600 to replace the B747 classics.

>>You missed the A310 vs B762 market. There is still a (small) market for
>>such an a/c, but I doubt that the investment is worth it.
>No, because Boeing stopped offering the 767-200 years ago.  (The airframe
>is still produced for the E-767 AWACS, but that's it.)  Boeing obviously
>agreed with your assesment that the investment wasn't worth even keeping
>the model in the catalog.

Until last year, Boeing still listed prices for the 767-200 and 767-200ER.
This year, Boeing no longer lists the prices for the 767-200 and 767-300.
However, the prices for the two ER versions are still listed.