Re: airliner market analysis [long]

Date:         13 Mar 98 03:35:28 
From:         Chuanga@cris.com (H Andrew Chuang)
Organization: Concentric Internet Services
References:   1 2
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In article <airliners.1998.411@ohare.Chicago.COM>,
Marc Schaeffer  <marcmsc@cmdnet.lu> wrote:
>H Andrew Chuang wrote:
>> AE316/317 vs B717-100/200 (aka MD-95)
>>
>> Airbus has learned that it is very difficult to do business with
>> China.  Airbus wants to build the smaller AE316 to compete with the
>> B717.  The Chinese are interested in the bigger AE317.  The other major
>> partner, Singapore Aerospace, is frustrated and is threatening to pull
>> out.
>
>If they would not succeed - and I doubt they can afford to do so - is there a
>chance to see this baby-bus being built by AI with other partners. Just think
>at Saab who has a lot of free capacity.

As long as the Chinese are involved, most of the assembly will be in China.
China's previous negotiations with Korea fell apart because the Korean
insisted on having at least one assembly line in Korea.

>> As long as Boeing can keep the cost down, the B717 might be moderately
>> successful.
>
>In long term the AE31X should have the lead as it will be designed from
>scratch. There will be the advantage of commonality with other members of AI,
>especially the 320. But that doesn't make the 717 a bad plane, this airframe
>has been very successful for over 30 years.

For regional jets, technology and commonality may not be very important.
Don't forget, the US is still the largest market for these regional jets.
Many of the regional jet operators in the US are not directly tied to
major Boeing and Airbus operators.

>> A330-200 vs B767-400
>>
>> As I have said so many times, the A330-200 revitalized the A330
>> program.  At this time, the A330-200 has a small lead.  Boeing needs
>> some Asian and European customers for the -400.
>
>This should be a tough battle over the next years, the advantage of the 764
>is that the 763 is well established, the 332 is however the newer design. So
>far the 764 has only be ordered by US customers, see
>http://www.geocities.com/CapeCanaveral/Lab/8803/b764a332.htm for more
>details.

The 767 has always be strong in the US and relatively weak in Asia and
Europe.  The 764 will not change this trend.  Nevertheless, if AA also
orders the 764, the 764 will have a very solid customer base, even though
they are all US customers.

>You missed the A310 vs B762 market. There is still a (small) market for such
>an a/c, but I doubt that the investment is worth it. I read that the 310NG
>would get the engines of the 340NG. But again this is a niche.

I didn't mean to be complete.  I also did not mention anything on the B757.
The Trent 500 and PW4XXX have all been proposed as alternative powerplants
for the B767-400.  I doubt an A310 replacement is high on Airbus's
development list.