Re: airliner market analysis [long]

Date:         13 Mar 98 03:35:27 
From:         malc@mci2000.com (Malcolm Weir)
Organization: Little to None
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On 03 Mar 98 03:13:14 , kls@ohare.Chicago.COM (Karl Swartz) caused to appear
as if it was written:

>>This is also my opinion, but there has been no order for the 773 for 2.5
>>years. This derivative will really start to be interesting if Boeing will
>>stop to produce the 744 which would be a direct rival to the 773X.
>
>The 777-300 is significantly smaller than the 747-400, thought the
>difference is not huge.  In addition, the ETOPS issue is real -- Virgin
>Atlantic, for example, chose the A340 over the 777 in part because they
>would have had to fritter away the 777s for about six months while they
>gained sufficient experience for ETOPS.  That and size will keep the 747
>in the Boeing catalog for a while yet.

In addition, the 744 can carry more weight-per-passenger than the 773 (some
of which is used for the fuel for the longer range of the 744).  Still, on
routes like LAX-SYD this is a major issue for carriers, who can sell more
cargo space than they can lift.

Given that a hypothetical 773X will first have to deliver the range of the
744 (if it is to replace it), the numbers will continue to favor the 744 and
its successors (-400Y) for a while to come.

Malc.