Re: airliner market analysis [long]

Date:         03 Mar 98 03:13:14 
From:         kls@ohare.Chicago.COM (Karl Swartz)
Organization: Chicago Software Works, Menlo Park, California
References:   1 2
Followups:    1 2 3 4
Next article
View raw article
  or MIME structure

>SIA will always get a good deal as they may 'really' launch the 345/6 or
>772/3X. So far the commitments for the 345/6 don't include a really big order
>of over 15 firm a/c.

The A340-500/600 has already been launched, and now has over 100 orders.
I read something a week or so ago saying the SIA order for a super long-
range airliner would be less than ten units, so they certainly won't be
the first "really big" order for the A340-500 if they go that way.

>This is also my opinion, but there has been no order for the 773 for 2.5
>years. This derivative will really start to be interesting if Boeing will
>stop to produce the 744 which would be a direct rival to the 773X.

The 777-300 is significantly smaller than the 747-400, thought the
difference is not huge.  In addition, the ETOPS issue is real -- Virgin
Atlantic, for example, chose the A340 over the 777 in part because they
would have had to fritter away the 777s for about six months while they
gained sufficient experience for ETOPS.  That and size will keep the 747
in the Boeing catalog for a while yet.

>You missed the A310 vs B762 market. There is still a (small) market for
>such an a/c, but I doubt that the investment is worth it.

No, because Boeing stopped offering the 767-200 years ago.  (The airframe
is still produced for the E-767 AWACS, but that's it.)  Boeing obviously
agreed with your assesment that the investment wasn't worth even keeping
the model in the catalog.

--
Karl Swartz	|Home	kls@chicago.com
		|Work	kls@netapp.com
		|WWW	http://www.chicago.com/~kls/
"The average dog is a nicer person than the average person." - Andrew A. Rooney