Re: United Airlines' Future Fleet

Date:         02 Sep 98 01:08:09 
From:         kls@ohare.Chicago.COM (Karl Swartz)
Organization: Chicago Software Works, Menlo Park, California
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>UA has stated in several press releases that they will have a grand total of
>645 a/c in their future fleet. In addition, they will only have 5 fleet types.
>Now, assuming that 757/767 has a common rating, and that they hushkit all the
>727s "as promised", this amounts to 6 fleet types. (A319/20, 737, 727, 757/767,
>744, 777). So this might indicate that UA would retire the 727s. Any ideas???

UA is hushkitting the 727 (and 737-200 Advanced) fleets, but I've heard
they only plan to keep them in service for an additional 4-5 years.
That and getting rid of the 747-200 fleets (UA has two very different
varieties) will get them down to the five fleet types.

>Assuming that they *keep* the 727s, by adding up all the plnes (except for
>757s) the total # of aircraft would be 525. (85 A320, 48 A319, 57 737-500, 101
>737-300, 75 727-200, 19 767-200/ER, 37 767-300/ER, 52 777-200s, 51-747-400s).
>Thus, it appears that UA will have 120 757-200s (645-525), although I think
>they have only ordered 102... Can anyone clarify???

UA currently has 96 757s and I can only come up with two more on order.
But you're forgetting 24 737-200 Advanced.  Those bring the total up to
647, except two of the 777s won't arrive until 2002, bringing us back
down to 645.  Evidently it is expected that all 9 747-200 and 8 DC-10-30
will be gone by the end of 2001.

> Is it possible that they will keep some old a/c???

Every word in a press release is chosen with great care.  Here is the
key part of UAL's July 30, 1998 press release:

   The airline's fleet will grow from 571 aircraft at year-end 1997 to
   645 at year-end 2001 based on current delivery and retirement schedules.
                        ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The April 14, 1998 press release announcing the order for 23 additional
Boeing widebodies said something similar, but then it was "an expected
639 aircraft at the end of 2001."  Note the different total at the end
of 2001, which could be influenced by deferred retirements as well as
by new aircraft deliveries.

> Do the DC-10-30Fs count as part of the fleet???

The above totals suggest not, but the variation in the projection for
2001 over the span of just 3 1/2 months this year is greater than the
current size of the DC-10-30F fleet.  In other words, they're lost in
the noise.

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