Date:06 Aug 98 11:26:15From:ranfaa@my-dejanews.comOrganization:Deja News - The Leader in Internet DiscussionFollowups:1 2 3

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When the big twins first started transatlantic operation this was the formula that the mathematicians produced to predict the first twin ditching through multiple engine failure.(The original date I don't recall) Needless to say that time passed a long time ago. The probability of a double power unit shutdown from independent causes is expressed as (2 P1 P2 T Y )where P1 is the probability of a single engine failure in cruise per hour, P2 is the probibility of second engine failure, T is the flight time duration, and Y is the diversion time at single engine cruise speed to the nearest suitable aerodrome. P1 is conservatively assessed by the ICAO study group as the recorded shut-down rate fo the mature aircraft -engine combination. P2 the probability of second engine failure from an independent cause, will be higher than P1 because the second engine will be operating at higher power; sot the study group recommends that P2 is 2P1. A double engine shutdown is regarded by most airworthiness authorities , and by the ICAO study group, as 'catastrophic" in other words , fatal. Allowing for he probability of a fatal crash resulting from total engine failure from independent causes to be one in 100 million hours , or 10 to power of -8, the study group recommends the folowing formula for assessing the required inflight shutdown rate for a particular route: 10 to power of -8 (0.6 + 0.4 T ) all divided by T Y The question we asked in QANTAS was: WHAT IF THE SECOND ENGINE FAILED FIRST ? -----== Posted via Deja News, The Leader in Internet Discussion ==----- http://www.dejanews.com/rg_mkgrp.xp Create Your Own Free Member Forum