Re: Why a new super-jumbo isn't going to be built anytime soon.

Date:         16 Apr 97 01:55:57 
From:         tschell@s.psych.uiuc.edu (Terry Schell)
Organization: University of Illinois at Urbana
References:   1 2
Followups:    1 2 3
Next article
View raw article
  or MIME structure

tassio@watson.ibm.com writes:
<snip>
>Given the projected growth in passenger trips, the fact that the
>world population will stop growing, and that each one of us can only do
>up to a given amount of travel (some cannot do any because
>they are scared of flying), the size of the largest aircraft
>available to airlines will converge to a given number.

Hmmm... people who do the sort of population prediction you are
talking about are not expecting the world's population to stop
growing anytime really soon.  Furthermore, we could get a 100 fold
increase in air travel if everyone flew as much as Americans currently
do (even without an increase in population).

In short, I don't think that your "lack-of-demand-growth" argument
holds much weight.  There may well be reasons that a super-jumbo does
not get built for a while... but it won't be because of a lack of
demand for passenger-miles.

Sincerely,
Terry