Re: Boeing cancels 747-500X/600X?

Date:         09 Mar 97 22:55:39 
From: (Terry Schell)
Organization: University of Illinois at Urbana
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Malcolm Weir <> writes:

>*Sigh*  Another bogus claim of Airbus getting favorable treatment.

>Let's look at a fact or two:

>The major players in the Airbus consortium are from France, Germany, and
>Air France has ordered 777-200IGW+ aircraft.
>British Airways is operating an all-Boeing medium & long haul fleet.
>Hapag-Lloyd in Germany is the launch customer for the 737-800.


>OK, so Lufthansa, Air France, and Virgin Atlantic operate A330/A340
>aircraft too.  But if the national airlines were, as you allege, a
>captive market for Airbus, then the above facts would not be true...

I was aware that some of these countries have national airlines that
have purchased Boeing products and it looks like they will
be buying more. That does not mean that there are not exstensive
political pressures to buy Airbus products. Perhaps "captive market"
is hyperbole... but I can site numerous industry sources that point
to historical pressures to buy Airbus products.

The central claim that you need to focues on *new* orders when you
work out the viability of a new product is unchanged.  I contend that
the bulk of the customers who have expressed interest in the 3XX are
currently 330/340 customers; the orders of 3XX's will be reducing the
orders of 330/340.  The role that politics has played in aquiring the
330/340 fleets is not important... just the fact that 3XX customers
look to be the airlines that are currently invested in 330/340's.  This
reduced the long-term financial benefits of building 3XX's.

If people have evidence that disputes that, please chime in.

Terry "I-could-be-wrong" Schell