Re: Boeing cancels 747-500X/600X?

Date:         02 Mar 97 15:18:05 
From:         don@rata.vuw.ac.nz (Don Stokes)
Organization: Victoria University of Wellington
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Karl Swartz <kls@ohare.Chicago.COM> wrote:
>However, some in your list don't clearly have a need for the A3XX.
>Qantas and Air New Zealand strike me as prime examples of Boeing's
>finding that most 747 customers bought the plane for its range, not
>capacity.  I don't have hard data to back that up, but I'm not aware
>of any markets where either has a need for a dramatic increase in
>capacity.

NZ actually made that decision back in '71 in choosing to go with the
DC-10-30 over the 747.  Traffic has increased a bit since then though...

I wonder though where the cut between increasing frequency and buying a
bigger plane lies.  Full aircraft have been a fact of life ever since CO
pulled out of the South Pacific, and believe me, an overbooked 747-400
from LAX to SYD is no fun.

On the range front, I wonder if QF & NZ would be interested in longer
range aircraft.  While both airlines have always been early customers for
long range models (especially the 767 ERs and 747-400) the 747-400 can
reach the entire Pacific rim and the lucrative parts of Asia as far as
India from both AKL and SYD.  The only potentially significant route that
I can see that QF & NZ can't fly right now is AKL/SYD to New York, and I
just can't see them buying an aircraft for one route, even if they could
get landing rights at JFK or EWR.

(South America is also a stretch -- it's doable with a 747-400 to some
parts, but I don't think anyone much wants to.  Chile is served by
meeting LAN Chile at PPT; Aerolineas Argentinas flies to AKL (747-400
again) about once a week.  I don't know what you do to get to Brazil.)

I suspect that a 767 with 747-400 range would be welcome though.  That
would mean an easier transition between n and n+1 747-400 flights on
congested routes, as well as serving long thin routes.

Being able to fly AKL/SYD to LHR direct would make QF & NZ very, very
happy, but that's not on the cards for the near future.

--
Don Stokes, Network Manager, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.
don@vuw.ac.nz(work) don@zl2tnm.gen.nz(home) +64 4 495-5052 Fax+64 4 471-5386