Re: Boeing cancels 747-500X/600X?

Date:         21 Feb 97 01:10:37 
From:         Chuanga@cris.com (H Andrew Chuang)
Organization: Concentric Internet Services
References:   1 2 3 4 5
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Previously, I wrote:

> >If you exclude second-hand B747 market, the B747
> >probably has around 20 to 30 customers, only.

And in article <airliners.1997.462@ohare.Chicago.COM>

Karl Swartz (kls@ohare.Chicago.COM) provided some Boeing data:

>
> The breakdown by series for the 747 is also interesting:
>
>           --- Deliveries ---    - Customers -
> Model       US Non-US  Total    US Non-US Tot
> 747-100    124    126    250    10    22   32
> 747-200     54    339    393     9    50   59
> 747-300      3     78     81     1    18   19
> 747-400     42    239    281     3    28   31
> 747-400D     0     19     19     0     2    2
> 747-400F     0     11     11     0     5    5
> 747-400M     0     47     47     0    12   12
>

My conclusion was definitely way off.  However, if we only consider
the B747-400 program, deducing from Karl's list, there are around 34
customers (i.e., 31 -400 customers, plus one customer with only the
-400F [Cargolux], and two customers with only the -400M [Air Canada
and Kuwait]).  (The -400 is by far the bese-selling B747 series.
Since the -400 was launched in the mid-80s, Boeing has sold more than
500 -400s.  I believe Boeing had sold around 400 -200s which was in
production for about 15 years.)

The "superjumbo" clientele will not be too different from the B747-400
customer base.  If an airline does not need the -400, there is no
reason why it will need a superjumbo.  Thus, we are looking at about
25 to 30 potential superjumbo customers, 10 to 15 of them being
"solid" customers with sizable needs.  Currently, Airbus is talking
to 19 airlines.

Anyway, I read an article in today's (2/19) Financial Times about the
A3XX.  It seems Airbus has altered its A3XX offerings.  Now, the base
model (the -100) will carry less than 500 passengers (about 50 less
than the earlier proposal), and the -200 will carry over 600
passengers.  Airbus also said that it will not build a 400-seater.
I'm not sure if it means Airbus will not build a 375-seater (i.e.,
A340-600X).