Re: Boeing cancels 747-500X/600X?

Date:         19 Feb 97 02:46:21 
From:         Jan Polcher <polcher@ella.ens.fr>
Organization: Ecole Normale Superieure
References:   1 2 3 4 5 6
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Fridays 16th, Le Monde had a very interesting article on the battle
between Boeing and Airbus for the >500 class.

In essence it said that the stretched 747 could not compete with the A3XX
for launch customers. Boeing is now offering a brand new aircraft for
2006 to avoid airlines choosing the Airbus product. It is also reported
that Boeing is threatening it's sub-contractors if they should participate
in the A3XX project. This might lead the European Union to oppose the
merger of Boeing and MD once it is officially announced.

This is only a very short resume of the article in Le Monde. Perhaps
somebody can scan it and distribute it ( with a translation if possible)
to this newsgroup !

> C. Marin Faure wrote on 13 Feb 97:
>
> All I can say is that you would be amazed at how fast Boeing could eate
> 747-500/600 if a true market emerged.  But if both projects went ahead
> der your last scenario, it was already acknowledged that the 747
> ivatives would beat the A3xx to market by several years.

Perhaps, but this market will probably only take off in 5 years or so.
Who will then want to start with an aircraft which is limited by it's old
design. When you design a brand new plane you can take into account all
the needs of the airlines without beeing limited by history. I think
especially the hump of the 747 is a problem. It looks nice but without it
you have news possibilities. The diameter of the 747 fuselage is probably
also a limiting factor for the 500 and 600 versions.

The 747-400 had it's share of problems, perhaps this also cooled off
airlines. Are the plans of the 747 now all in digital forms and can it's
evolution be done on computers ?

> Also, most
> rket and financial analysts seem to feel that the cost and time-to
> oduce-projections by Airbus for the A3XX are WAY underestimated.  But en
> who says analysts are always right...

This is probably the largest problems with this new class of airplanes,
the money !! Apparently companies in the US and Asia are interested in
helping Airbus to finance their project. Here Boeing will certainly try to
put on the pressure and kill the project.

	Best regards

		Jan

Jan Polcher                                              TEL: -33-1-44322243
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du CNRS            FAX: -33-1-43368392
École Normale Supérieure     24, rue Lhomond    75231 PARIS cedex 05, FRANCE
http://www.lmd.ens.fr/~polcher/                           polcher@lmd.ens.fr