Re: Boeing cancels 747-500X/600X?

Date:         19 Feb 97 02:46:21 
From:         tschell@s.psych.uiuc.edu (Terry Schell)
Organization: University of Illinois at Urbana
References:   1 2 3 4 5
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faurecm@halcyon.com (C. Marin Faure) writes:
<snip>
>All I can say is that you would be amazed at how fast Boeing could create
>a 747-500/600 if a true market emerged.  But if both projects went ahead
>under your last scenario, it was already acknowledged that the 747
>drivatives would beat the A3xx to market by several years.  Also, most
>market and financial analysts seem to feel that the cost and time-to
>produce-projections by Airbus for the A3XX are WAY underestimated.  But
>then who says analysts are always right...

I think this really is the bottom line.  Currently the 747-400 is
*the* airplane for the super-jumbo market.  Because of this there is
no reason for Boeing to rush development on a plane that's market will
come at the expense of one of their existing products.  The optimal
strategy for Boeing is to delay investing money into this project for
as long as possible (i.e., maintain the status quo).  The only time
that should change is when it is clear that Airbus will challenge the
747's market, and then Boeing just needs to get their product to
market before Airbus.

I expect Boeing to start work on a 747-500/600 when they think that
Airbus is 5 years from bring a plane to market.  Any money invested
before that time is poorly spent, IMHO.

Terry "an-opinion-on-every-topic" Schell