Re: Boeing cancels 747-500X/600X?

Date:         19 Feb 97 02:46:20 
From:         Chuanga@cris.com (H Andrew Chuang)
Organization: Concentric Internet Services
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In article <airliners.1997.428@ohare.Chicago.COM>,
Ben <mba340@club-internet.fr> wrote:
>Chuanga@cris.com (H Andrew Chuang) wrote:
>>Boeing's reasons for cancelling the project are logical.  However, I
>>think Airbus's marketing people have done a great job in convincing some
>>key customers from not committing to Boeing.  The superjumbo will have
>>a smaller customer base than the B747.  (The customer base for the B747
>>is already a small one.  Approximately 50% of the B747 in service are
>>with the top ten or twelve B747 operators.)
>
>but 25 airlines assume 70 % of the total traffic

You totally missed the point.  All the narrow-bodies planes have a very
broad customer base, many have 100 plus customers.  The B767 and
A300/310 have a fairly broad customer base, too.  The A330/340 has about
40 customers, and the B777 has about 25 customers, but both are
relatively new models.  If you exclude second-hand B747 market, the B747
probably has around 20 to 30 customers, only.  (With such a small base,
I personally don't think the B747-size and "superjumbo" market can viably
sustain two competing manufacturers.)

>>Even before launching the
>>A3XX, Airbus basically has at least three customers in its basket, namely,
>>Air France, Lufthansa, and Korean Air (Korea is likely to be the first
>>Asian A3XX partner).
>
>Do you really think that Airbus continues its project with those 3
>potential customers. I do not htink tha AFR is the best customer in
>its situation.
>I think Airbus has some views on the some airlines than Boeing that is
>to say the top ten of the airlines.

You utterly misquoted my original post.  I did not say Airbus would
continue its projects with three customers.

Let me re-state what I said before: The superjumbo will have a very
small customer base.  With a few airlines (like LH, AF, and KE) almost
sure to order the Airbus plane (if it's launched), and a few major
ones (like BA and SQ) are willing to decide after hearing Airbus's
proposal, Boeing simply could not get enough orders from major
customers to launch the new aircraft.

Boeing said that there was no sufficient demand, but I really think
the demand was held off by Airbus.  After all, Boeing was ready to
launch the plane last September at the Farnborough Air Show when
Singapore Airlines, Japan Airlines, and a few other were rumored
to order the B747X.

PS It's funny that Ben (mba340@club-internet.fr) had challenged me
   many times when I criticized Airbus.  This time, I'm praising
   Airbus's marketing effort for the A3XX, Ben challenged me, again.
   I guess I'm in a no-win situation.  ;-)