Date: 21 Dec 97 17:01:25 From: firstname.lastname@example.org (James Matthew Weber) Organization: Customer of Access One Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Australia References: 1 2
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In article <airliners.1997.2982@ohare.Chicago.COM>, Marc Schaeffer <email@example.com> wrote:>A major key to the freezing of the 777X program was the high operating >costs of such an a/c. ... >- In the SQ config there were 200 seats, this is 92 seats less than for >the normal three class config for the 772. Less seats means less income, >and even if those remaining seats are more expensive you would have to >increase tickets-pricing by 50% to compensate. If the seats are too >expensive the loading factor would drop, giving you less income ... As I think I have pointed out previously, it has been reported that SQ has cooled considerably toward the SIN-LAX Non-stop service. It was reported that the study suggested a load factor of 90% was required for breakeven operation. I suspect what is holding up many ultra-long range prospects is the economic analysis is very bad. Airlines are interested until they work the numbers. They want a 777-200X type aircraft, they don't like the operating costs. On some routes, the lift capacity was tightly controlled, and this allowed very high fares, and very high yields. When QF and PA/UA had the duopoly on the SYD-LAX run, they filled their respective SP aircraft everynight, and the lowest fare was a full Y. The operating economies were horrible, but the yields were astronomical. The problem is on routes like SIN-LAX, there are half a dozen ways to do it, (Via Hkg, Via TPE, via SEL, Via NRT, Via Kix...). There is no duopoly involved, so it is hard to get the public to bite on the premium that needs to be charged to make these operations attractive. It would appear the 747-400 IGW is an attempt to make some sense of these operations and allow them with reasonable payloads. As for the time saved, the costs are getting hard to justify. The justification for Concorde has always been time. Note that Concorde services have ceased from Miami and Washington, and frankly my experience is the loads into and out of JFK aren't that good any longer. You can get from LHR to JFK in time for it to do you any good. In the other direction, the day is lost whether you fly in Concorde or the daylight 747. The ultra long haul is something lots of people seem to want until they have to pay for it. My opinions anyway.