Re: A340-500/600 vs. B777-200X/B747-200X etc.

Date:         25 Nov 97 03:26:09 
From:         kls@ohare.Chicago.COM (Karl Swartz)
Organization: Chicago Software Works, Menlo Park, California
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>Boeing right now is extending just about all product lines so they
>overlap: 737-900/757-200

These do overlap in seat count for standard two-class configs, but the
757 has *far* greater range and can handle substantially more seats in
a single-class, tight-pitch, inclusive tour layout.  The 737-900 offers
a cheaper alternative for carriers who don't need that range capability
and don't plane on flying sardines.

>757-300/767-200

These don't really overlap because the 767-200 is no longer offered.
(It's still built as a military airframe, though.)

>767-400/777-200

These don't overlap, either -- for comparable configurations, Boeing's
numbers say the 777-200 seats 70-90 more passengers than the 767-400.

>I think Boeing will first get 737, 757 and 767 stretches into the air,
>then concentrate on the 747, and only then return to the 777.

The first three have already been launched, so that's a pretty safe
bet.  Between the 747 and 777, it depends on what the airlines decide
they want.  If they want lots and lots of seats, the next 747 variant
may be the next to launch, but the market case for an even bigger plane
doesn't seem to be all the strong.  Greater range seems to be more
interesting.  Buying from Boeing, airlines have a choice of a heavier
777, which will be cheaper to buy and to operate but which will have
ETOPS to deal with, or one of several 747 variants.  I wouldn't bet
against the 777, especially since American has already said they'd be
interested, and Crandall won't buy a 747.

>As I recall, the 767 was designed for the second stretch (the -400)
>and TOW of up to 400.000 pounds right from the start.

If so, the job was only halfway done, since they had to change the
landing gear to accomodate the extra length of the 767-400.  That's a
pretty expensive change.

--
Karl Swartz	|Home	kls@chicago.com
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