Date: 27 Aug 97 03:57:54 From: email@example.com Organization: a2i network References: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Followups: 1 2
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Karl wrote: > Hopefully we can agree that Fairbanks is viable. It would be interesting to know how many days each year FAI and other critical alternatives are unavailable. There are a large number of airfields in northern Siberia with long runways built by the Soviets for their Air Defense Force and fewer but with even longer runways built for their Air Force. Unless a large number of alternates exist for any point along each flight path, the routes will change daily in the winter based on which airfields can be cleared of snow. I'm confident that in recent years not enough runways have been clear on enough winter days to permit ETOPS operations. But with airlines paying $1800 or so in hard currency per flight for overflight rights, the Russians might be willing to make enough military airfields available to permit economical ETOPS operations. Even if the Russians do this, it remains easy to imagine days when runways cannot be cleared and the flights must be cancelled or, more likely, make a technical stop somewhere. > Flying JFK-HKG via N78 E164 keeps the flight within 180 minutes of > either Fairbanks or Magadan (at 757 engine-out speeds, with none of > the other alternates mentioned above required) yet adds only 8 miles > (0.099%) to the direct distance. That's certainly a trivial increase, but what happens on those days when Magadan is unavailable and winds are unfavorable? I think that given the range of the B777-200IGW, JFK-HKG service would have to be operated on a schedule that allowed enough time to make a fuel stop either way before the plane needed to depart again. If a B777 departs HKG at 0730 it should arrive JFK at about 1100. If it needs to stop for fuel that day, it wouldn't arrive JFK until perhaps 1300. With a 90 minute turn-around, scheduled departure from JFK could be 1430. A nonstop arrival in HKG would then be about 1930, or 2130 with a technical stop for fuel on days when it would be necessary. If enough airfields in Russia become available, this would probably work, leaving enough time for maintenance at HKG. I believe there's enough traffic for CX and UA to each operate one daily flight. The economics would depend on how often fuel stops were required. Of course, the B777-200X would obviate the need for stops on the JFK-HKG route. > JFK-SIN does not appear to need any deviation. True on days that the alternates are available. I just doubt this would be more than, say, 300 days per year, even if the Russian government allows military bases to be used as alternates. Again, this is highly speculative. JFK-SIN is long enough that the B777-200IGW just cannot fly it nonstop, and an aircraft cannot hold the route captive. The JFK-SIN flight would need to depart prior to the arrival of the SIN-JFK flight in order to have reasonable arrival and departure times at SIN. UA could perhaps use the aircraft for a SIN-JFK-LHR-JFK-SIN rotation departing SIN early in the morning and returning in the evening two days later (three aircraft needed to maintain daily flights). A B777-200X may seem like overkill for JFK-LHR, but it could carry plenty of cargo, which is often more profitable than pax. Singapore Airlines, on the other hand, could RON at JFK and depart early in the morning with a mid-afternoon arrival in SIN. A mid-day departure from SIN would arrive JFK in the evening. Singapore could fit a rotation like HKG-SIN-JFK-SIN-HKG, for example. I can't imagine there is enough JFK-SIN traffic for two daily flights though. Perhaps each carrier could profitably fly 2x week. > 777s flying SFO-LHR have occasionally departed on 1R, which is only > 8,901 feet long. BRW-FAI is only 503 miles, so while the 6,500 foot > runway isn't very generous, I don't think it would be that big of a > problem given the modest range requirement. Good point. It might or might not be possible to get an A330 or B777 out of BRW with the pax onboard. M Carling -- Microsoft Network is prohibited from reproducing this work, in whole or in part. Copyright 1997, M Carling. License is available to Microsoft Network to reproduce this work for $1000. Unauthorized reproduction by Microsoft Network constitutes agreement to these terms. Please report violations to firstname.lastname@example.org and email@example.com.