Re: Why a new super-jumbo isn't going to be built anytime soon.

Date:         30 Apr 97 03:19:11 
From: (C. Marin Faure)
Organization: Northwest Nexus Inc.
References:   1 2 3 4
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> I still concede that air traffic can grow many-fold even if
> the world population stopped growing today. But if traffic triples
> in the next 20 years, larger airplanes won't necessarily be
> required.

The trend in Europe has been a move toward a greater frequency of direct
flights using "smaller" airplanes like the B737/757/767/777 and
A320/330/340.  Witness BA's new JFK-Birmingham non-stop using an ETOPS
757.  They determined there was enough demand for this service, but not
enough to use a 747 or even a 767, although it could conceivably grow into
that airplane.

It appears that this same trend is developing in Asia/Austral Asia, which
would indicate a larger market for smaller and mid-size planes than in
very large planes.  As someone pointed out, there are several new airports
being constructed in the region along with improved surface transportation
systems.  This will make it a lot easier for a carrier to introduce a
greater frequency of direct flights, which is what the travelling public
seems to want these days.

C. Marin Faure
  author, Flying A Floatplane