Re: Why a new super-jumbo isn't going to be built anytime soon.

Date:         30 Apr 97 03:19:10 
From: (Michael Jennings)
Organization: University of Cambridge DAMTP
References:   1 2 3
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In article <airliners.1997.979@ohare.Chicago.COM>,
Terry Schell <> wrote:
> writes:
>>Given the projected growth in passenger trips, the fact that the
>>world population will stop growing, and that each one of us can only do
>>up to a given amount of travel (some cannot do any because
>>they are scared of flying), the size of the largest aircraft
>>available to airlines will converge to a given number.
>Hmmm... people who do the sort of population prediction you are
>talking about are not expecting the world's population to stop
>growing anytime really soon.  Furthermore, we could get a 100 fold
>increase in air travel if everyone flew as much as Americans currently
>do (even without an increase in population).

	There are 260 million people in America. There are just under
six billion people in the world. Therefore there are just over 20 times
as many people in the world as there are in America. Therefore the
total amound of air travel you would get if everyone in the world
travelled as much as the Americans would be around 25 times as much
as now occurs for the American population. American carriers account for
something like 40% of air travel in the world at the moment, meaning that
total air travel occuring now is about 2.5 times the amount of travel
undertaken by Americans (assuming that the difference between Americans
travelling on foreign carriers and foreigners travelling on American carriers
is a small percentage of total travel, which is a fair assumption).
Therefore, if everyone in the world travelled as much as Americans do,
total air travel would increase by a factor of 10, not 100.

Michael Jennings
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
The University of Cambridge.

	"`I need every aluminum can you can find! And duct tape!"