Re: Why a new super-jumbo isn't going to be built anytime soon.

Date:         23 Apr 97 02:58:16 
From:         Eric Peeters <eric@infoboard.be>
Organization: Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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Malcolm Weir wrote:
>
> On 15 Apr 97 03:22:41 , matt@firstsol.com (matt weber) wrote:
>
> Matt's analysis, speculation, and deductions on:
>
> >    Why no new Super-Jumbo?
>
> British Airways COO Dr. Alistair Cumming stated at a conference in LA
> that "BA is committed to the need for larger aircraft than the 747
> because of the approaching saturation point of airports and the
> infrastructure.  Only one thing can help the industry grow in this
> context, and that is larger aeroplanes.  The industry cries out for
> more efficient use of flights and slots by the provision of larger
> aircraft".

<snip>

> Cumming also remarked that BA was ready to be the launch customer for
> the 747-600X, but that the latter stages of the Boeing development
> plan showed increasing inferiority to the proposed cost structure of
> an all-new, purpose built aircraft.

What Cumming also said and I think is relevant, is that BA wants a large
aircraft bad enough to be ready to be the second official launch airline
for the A3XX, provided they "can make money" out of it and the aircraft
meets the airline's timescale. But then isn't that what you want out of
any airliner ?

Also, Cumming had an unusual explanation for Boeing's decision to drop
studies of a new large aircraft, instead of using the B747-600X. To keep
it short and as I understand it, BA simply wonders :
1) if Boeing has the cash to fund studies for a new large aircraft,
given the cost of acquiring McD ?
2) if Boeing's decision was not based on its current monopoly situation
and its hope Airbus will blunder or give up its attempts, which will
lead to airlines needing a very large aircraft buying B747-400 ?
Remember, or note, that Boeing estimates tally the number of -400s to be
sold between now and 2010 to 700 aircraft, provided there's no very
large aircraft coming from Airbus. How much of those 700 aircraft could
be actually switched over to Airbus if it goes ahead with a 500 seater ?
After all, Boeing aknowledge the need for a very large aircraft, the
difference with Airbus being that it thinks it won't be needed until
2010.

Comments anyone ?

Eric Peeters