Re: AA965 proves Airbus bashers deadly wrong

From:         kls@ohare.Chicago.COM (Karl Swartz)
Organization: Chicago Software Works, Menlo Park, California
Date:         22 Jan 96 04:40:40 
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>Where's Karl to tell us his theory of how we're overdue for a 320
>crash!

Not so much a theory as a wisecrack based on (misuse of) statistics --
it was 16 months from the A320's first flight to its first fatal crash.
The interval between succeeding crashes was 20 months, 23 months, and
20 months.  The A320 has now gone 28 months without a fatal crash,
though since the debate is focused on the flight controls it would
seem fair to include the A330 crash, which was 19 months ago.  One
might (erroneously) conclude that an A320 crash is either overdue or
due in the next few months.  An amusing joke, perhaps, but statistics
don't really work that way.

However, Michel Asseline, captain of the A320 that crashed at Habsheim,
argues in his book "Le pilote est-il coupable?" that United will plant
one in the not-too-distant future.  I'm afraid I don't read French, so
I could only barely follow the general drift of his argument.  Perhaps
someone more literate in French, and who has read the book, would care
to comment.

--
Karl Swartz	|Home	kls@chicago.com
		|Work	kls@slac.stanford.edu
		|WWW	http://www.chicago.com/~kls/
Moderator of sci.aeronautics.airliners -- Unix/network work pays the bills