Re: AA & the Airbus A340

From:         Chuanga@cris.com (H Andrew Chuang)
Organization: Concentric Internet Services
Date:         09 Apr 96 14:22:48 
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In article <airliners.1996.469@ohare.Chicago.COM>,
Karl Swartz <kls@ohare.Chicago.COM> wrote:
>>Thus, IMHO, if AA is going to order the B777, the majority of the
>>order will be for the -100, provided Boeing is able to come up with
>>a good solution for the weight problem ...
>
>But the 777-100 won't have that many more seats than the 767-300 (but
>substantially more cargo lift), and will be very close to the A300-600,
>both of which AA already has.  The only reason for buying the 777-100
>is tremendous range, and right now AA doesn't have any need for that
>kind of range.  If they buy the 777 at all, I don't see why they would
>pick the -100 -- and you make a convincing case for the bigger 777s
>being too big for AA's operations, so it seems unlikely that we'll see
>any AA 777s.
>

To the best of my knowledge, the B777-100X (and the A330-200 as well as
the A340-200/-8000) can carry thirty more passengers in a typical
three-class configuration than the A300-600 and the B767-300.  IMHO, for
Boeing to get AA interested in the B777, Boeing will have to offer AA not
just the ultra-long range B777-100 but also the so-called B777-100 Lite.
As I have said it long long time ago, I think the B777-300 will make the
B777 program an extremely successful one.  The B777-100X will make a lot
of sense for airlines which operate a large fleet of B777-200/-300.  For
airlines which don't need much large capacity aircraft, the B777-100X
alone does not seem to be a good choice.  Nevertheless, I don't think AA
will blatantly rule out the B777.  AA will make sure it gets the best
possible deal.  After all, AA has been operating two very similar
aircraft (the B767 and A300).  Thus, there is no guarantee that AA will
choose the most "sensible" aircraft.  Also, don't forget Boeing is still
studying the B767-400X (and perhaps even resurrects the B767ERY for
AA?).  If I were a Boeing marketing executive, I would have made sure not
to let Airbus get the AA order.  Without AA's order, the A330 program
will be in deep trouble.  ILFC's order is certainly sweet for Airbus, but
a sizable order from AA will definitely give a big boost for Airbus
especially the A330 program.  AA did it once for Airbus with the A300
order; and the history might repeat itself.  IMHO, this is a "strategic"
order for which both players will fight very hard.  Thus, I think
Boeing has at least an equal chance even though, on paper, Airbus has the
more appropriate equipment for AA's need than Boeing has.

BTW, since I'm talking about the A330, I would like to mention something
about Philippine Airlines' A330 order: from various sources, it seems to
me PAL is taking over Air Inter's A330 delivery slots.  Can anyone verify
this?  (Earlier, there was a rumor that PAL was going to buy the A330
from Air Inter.  Thus, my observation seems to be consistent with the
rumor.)

--
  H Andrew Chuang (chuanga@cris.com)