From: <Chuanga@cris.com> Date: 18 Jan 96 14:50:30
View raw article or MIME structure
In July, my Airbus total was only one short. In November, it was around ten short. At the end of the year, the Airbus total in my list is an astounding 32 aircraft short! Airbus claimed to have secured orders from 23 customers but I was only able to gather 13 (I know that I've missed TACA of costa Rica's order). You can make your own interpretation why such a large discrepancy occurred in such a short period of time. My Boeing total is eight short, and MD total is nine. (Boeing added quite a few orders at the end of the year, too. Nonetheless, Boeing did announce which airlines made those orders.) To match the totals published by the three manufacturers, I added three lines of "orders" from "unknown" operators. Also, there are minor discrepancies in the totals of the A320 (-4), A321 (+4), B737-3/4/500 (-6), and B737-6/7/800 (+6). Nevertheless, the overall total of narrowbody orders for each company is correct. The task of keeping track of these orders has not been easy, but a few of you have been very helpful. I intend to continue to post the list for 1996. Comments and suggestions for improving the list will be greatly appreciated. Although, I do intend to convert the list to HTML format so that I can put it on the WWW, I just can't find the time to do it yet. ========================================================================== Some of the highlights and statistics of 1995 orders: Aircraft launched: 1. B737-600 (launched by SAS with an initial order of 35, SAS ordered another 6 later on) 2. B777-300 (launched by Cathay, ANA, Thai, and Korean with a combined order of 20 plus 11 conversions from previous -200 orders) 3. MD95 (launched by ValuJet with an order of 50) 4. A340-8000 (no formal launch order, Air Canada signed up for two before it was launched) 5. A330-200 (no launch order) Major orders (worth over US$1 billion, powerplant choice in parenthesis): SAS - 35 B737-600 (CFM56) Saudia - 5 B747 (CF6) 23 B777 (GE90) 29 MD90 (V2500) 4 MD11 (CF6) ILFC - 40 B737-600 11 B737-700 3 B737-800 (CFM56) Singapore/SALE - 28 B777 (Trent 800) 6 B777 (undecided) ValuJet - 50 MD95 (BR715) Japan - 16 B747 (CF6?) 1 B767 (CF6?) Market shares (based on units): models units shares Narrowbody (less than 180 seats): A319/320 69 22.4% B737-3/4/5/6/7/800 176 57.1% MD-80/90/95 63 20.5% (To be fair to Airbus, I really should have compared A319/320 with the B737-3/4/7/800 and MD-80/90. The B737-500/600 is really competing with the MD95, only. However, I don't have a breakdown of the -3/4/500 orders.) Narrowbody (180-220 seats): A321 12 48.0% B757 13 52.0% Widebody (200-250 seats) A300/310 6 18.8% B767 26 81.2% Widebody (250-350 seats) A330/340 19 19.6% B777-200 67 69.1% MD-11 11 11.3% Widebody (over 350 seats) B777-300 25 \ B747 39 / 100.0% Other than the 180-220 seat catogory in which the B757 narrowly beat the A321, Boeing dominated in all other catogories; hence, Boeing is the undisputed winner for 1995. This is also a very good year for McD. However, if McD cannot get any major new order for the MD-11 in 1996, I'm afraid the decision to axe the MD-11 line will be imminent. Airbus needs to work doubly hard to achieve its goal to capture 50% of the market by year 2000. IMHO, Boeing will not outsell Airbus 3-to-1 in 1996 as they did in 1995, but Boeing will dominate for the forseeable future. Engine Manufacturers' market shares: (only orders with known powerplant selection are included) low-bypass (applications: MD80) JT8D-200 (100%) - 24 installed engines (12 MD80s) high-bypass less than 20,000 lb thrust (applications: MD95) BR715 (100%) - 100 installed engines (50 MD95s) 20,000 - 35,000 lb thrust (applications: MD90; A319/20/21, A340; B737) CFM56-3/5/7 ( 79%) - 460 installed engines (34 319/20/21s, 10 340s, 176 737s) V2500 ( 21%) - 122 installed engines (24 319/20/21s, 37 MD90s) 37,000 - 43,000 lb thrust (applications: B757) PW2000 ( 33%) - 8 installed engines ( 4 757s) RB.211-535 ( 67%) - 16 installed engines ( 8 757s) 50,000 - 70,000 lb thrust (applications: A300/310; B747, B767; MD11) CF6-80C2/E1 ( 76%) - 178 installed engines (32 747s, 16 767s, 6 MD11s) PW4000 ( 14%) - 32 installed engines ( 2 310s, 5 747s, 4 767s) RB.211-524 \ / 16 installed engines ( 8 747s) Trent 700 / ( 10%) \ 8 installed engines ( 8 330s) 75,000 lb thrust and over (applications: B777) GE90 ( 29%) - 46 installed engines (23 777s) PW4000 ( 28%) - 44 installed engines (22 777s) Trent 800 ( 43%) - 68 installed engines (34 777s) CFMI is the clear winner in the low-to-mid thrust range. In the high thrust range, after a dismal first half, GE is doing quite well in 1995, thanks to Saudia and JAL's year-end B747 order. (Well, I assume JAL is sticking with the CF6 for their B747 engines, but who knows!) Regardless, I'm sure GE is not pleased to see itself slipping into third place in the B777 competition. More significantly, the long-term prospect for Rolls-Royce has been greatly improved after Singapore's (as well as Malaysia's) B777 orders.