1995 Aircraft Orders - Comments and Highlights

From:         <Chuanga@cris.com>
Date:         18 Jan 96 14:50:30 
View raw article
  or MIME structure

In July, my Airbus total was only one short.  In November, it was around
ten short.  At the end of the year, the Airbus total in my list is an
astounding 32 aircraft short!  Airbus claimed to have secured orders from
23 customers but I was only able to gather 13 (I know that I've missed
TACA of costa Rica's order).  You can make your own interpretation why
such a large discrepancy occurred in such a short period of time.  My
Boeing total is eight short, and MD total is nine.  (Boeing added quite a
few orders at the end of the year, too.  Nonetheless, Boeing did announce
which airlines made those orders.)  To match the totals published by the
three manufacturers, I added three lines of "orders" from "unknown"
operators.  Also, there are minor discrepancies in the totals of the A320
(-4), A321 (+4), B737-3/4/500 (-6), and B737-6/7/800 (+6).  Nevertheless,
the overall total of narrowbody orders for each company is correct.

The task of keeping track of these orders has not been easy, but a few
of you have been very helpful.  I intend to continue to post the list
for 1996.  Comments and suggestions for improving the list will be
greatly appreciated.  Although, I do intend to convert the list to HTML
format so that I can put it on the WWW, I just can't find the time to do
it yet.

==========================================================================

Some of the highlights and statistics of 1995 orders:

Aircraft launched:

1. B737-600  (launched by SAS with an initial order of 35, SAS ordered
              another 6 later on)
2. B777-300  (launched by Cathay, ANA, Thai, and Korean with a combined order
              of 20 plus 11 conversions from previous -200 orders)
3. MD95      (launched by ValuJet with an order of 50)
4. A340-8000 (no formal launch order, Air Canada signed up for two before it
              was launched)
5. A330-200  (no launch order)

Major orders (worth over US$1 billion, powerplant choice in parenthesis):

SAS            - 35 B737-600 (CFM56)
Saudia         - 5 B747 (CF6)  23 B777 (GE90)  29 MD90 (V2500)  4 MD11 (CF6)
ILFC           - 40 B737-600  11 B737-700 3 B737-800 (CFM56)
Singapore/SALE - 28 B777 (Trent 800)  6 B777 (undecided)
ValuJet        - 50 MD95 (BR715)
Japan          - 16 B747 (CF6?) 1 B767 (CF6?)


Market shares (based on units):


    models          units   shares

Narrowbody (less than 180 seats):
A319/320              69     22.4%
B737-3/4/5/6/7/800   176     57.1%
MD-80/90/95           63     20.5%
(To be fair to Airbus, I really should have compared A319/320 with
 the B737-3/4/7/800 and MD-80/90.  The B737-500/600 is really competing
 with the MD95, only.  However, I don't have a breakdown of the
 -3/4/500 orders.)

Narrowbody (180-220 seats):
A321                  12     48.0%
B757                  13     52.0%

Widebody (200-250 seats)
A300/310               6     18.8%
B767                  26     81.2%

Widebody (250-350 seats)
A330/340              19     19.6%
B777-200              67     69.1%
MD-11                 11     11.3%

Widebody (over 350 seats)
B777-300              25  \
B747                  39  / 100.0%

Other than the 180-220 seat catogory in which the B757 narrowly beat
the A321, Boeing dominated in all other catogories; hence, Boeing is
the undisputed winner for 1995.  This is also a very good year for McD.
However, if McD cannot get any major new order for the MD-11 in 1996,
I'm afraid the decision to axe the MD-11 line will be imminent.  Airbus
needs to work doubly hard to achieve its goal to capture 50% of the
market by year 2000.  IMHO, Boeing will not outsell Airbus 3-to-1 in
1996 as they did in 1995, but Boeing will dominate for the forseeable
future.

Engine Manufacturers' market shares:
(only orders with known powerplant selection are included)

low-bypass (applications: MD80)
JT8D-200      (100%) -  24 installed engines (12 MD80s)

high-bypass

less than 20,000 lb thrust (applications: MD95)
BR715         (100%) - 100 installed engines (50 MD95s)

20,000 - 35,000 lb thrust (applications: MD90; A319/20/21, A340; B737)
CFM56-3/5/7   ( 79%) - 460 installed engines (34 319/20/21s, 10 340s, 176 737s)
V2500         ( 21%) - 122 installed engines (24 319/20/21s, 37 MD90s)

37,000 - 43,000 lb thrust (applications: B757)
PW2000        ( 33%) -   8 installed engines ( 4 757s)
RB.211-535    ( 67%) -  16 installed engines ( 8 757s)

50,000 - 70,000 lb thrust (applications: A300/310; B747, B767; MD11)
CF6-80C2/E1   ( 76%) - 178 installed engines (32 747s, 16 767s,  6 MD11s)
PW4000        ( 14%) -  32 installed engines ( 2 310s,  5 747s,  4 767s)
RB.211-524 \         /  16 installed engines ( 8 747s)
Trent 700  /  ( 10%) \   8 installed engines ( 8 330s)

75,000 lb thrust and over (applications: B777)
GE90          ( 29%) -  46 installed engines (23 777s)
PW4000        ( 28%) -  44 installed engines (22 777s)
Trent 800     ( 43%) -  68 installed engines (34 777s)

CFMI is the clear winner in the low-to-mid thrust range.  In the high
thrust range, after a dismal first half, GE is doing quite well in 1995,
thanks to Saudia and JAL's year-end B747 order.  (Well, I assume JAL is
sticking with the CF6 for their B747 engines, but who knows!)  Regardless,
I'm sure GE is not pleased to see itself slipping into third place in the
B777 competition.  More significantly, the long-term prospect for
Rolls-Royce has been greatly improved after Singapore's (as well as
Malaysia's) B777 orders.