Re: ATR-72's and Airbuses

Date:         17 Dec 96 03:09:19 
From:         jfmezei <>
Organization: SPC
References:   1 2 3 4
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H Andrew Chuang wrote:
> A3XX.  Airbus predicted around 1,500 sales of the over-500-seat market
> to justify the launch of the A3XX, while others (Boeing, BAe, DASA, Rolls,
> GE, P&W, etc.) forecasted a need of 500-800 planes only.  The following
> is an example illustrating how bad some market forecasts can be: in 1991,
> right before the launch of the B777, Airbus predicted that there would be:

There is a difference between saying you need to have 1500 sales to cost
justify the development of a plane, and saying that you forecast sales
of 1500 units.

The fact that the A3XX has not been launched does mean that Airbus knows
it does not have the 1500 unit sales potential.

And the 1500 unit may be one of many scenario ranging from:
	1500 assured sales to get the banks to loan money without collateral.
	1000 units with financing hard to get on your own.
	500 units requiring government garantees
	10 units requiring government grants in the billions.