Re: ATR-72's and Airbuses

Date:         17 Dec 96 03:09:18 
From:         Joseph Edward Nemec <nemecj@mit.edu>
Organization: Massachvsetts Institvte of Technology
References:   1 2 3 4 5
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Karl Swartz wrote:

> Several weeks ago, an AW&ST article (p. 45, November 25, 1996 issue)
> included a chart of the various manufacturers' forecasts for aircraft
> in the 500-600 seat market, for deliveries thru 2014:
>
>   Boeing                  470
>   Airbus                1,380
>     British Aerospace     715
>     DASA                  745
>     Aerospatiale          625
>   McDonnell Douglas       540
>
>   Rolls-Royce             500
>   GE                      535

This is also on Beoing's web page. There is a chart from their presentation
at Farnborough that lists these numbers.

*snip*

> If true, it appears that Airbus' forecast is wildly optimistic.  The
> fact that even their partners aren't nearly as sanguine about the
> 500-600 seat market gives credence to this supposition.

I suspect Airbus is fudging the numbers. The Americans forced an agreement
on the Europeans to restrict government financing of commercial aircraft
design to about 30% of total cost in the WTO agreement.  Airbus needs to
raise most of the funds on the open market for their A3XX, and is trying
to show that there is enough of a demand for investors to make back their
money. They are also claiming that it will cost less than $8 billion to
develop, which is funny, because when Boeing and Airbus studied the idea
of building such a jet jointly, they put the cost at over $14 billion.

--
Joseph Edward Nemec
nemecj@mit.edu
http://web.mit.edu/nemecj/www/