Date: 12 Dec 96 03:49:24 From: Andrew Weir <100637.616@CompuServe.COM> Followups: 1
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I read that the current accident rate has stabilised, and that traffic is expected to increase at about 6-7 per cent a year. I have heard that at the ISASI conference in Dubai recently this was raised as a concern. The concern, apparently, is that although the accident rate is stable, and thus the risk to the individual the same, any increase in traffic means an increase in the total number of accidents. One prediction is that in 15 years time, given the current accident rate and that predicted traffic increase, there will be a major air catastrophe every week, on average. Despite the risk being unchanged, the threat is that the news media will be so full of horrendous scenes of aviation destruction that the perception of risk in the travelling public will increase dramatically, leading people to seek alternative means of travel, or simply not travelling. Question: Does anyone know of any strategies being mounted by anybody in the aviation safety business, or the industry as a whole, to deal with the problem? It seems to me, as a result, and I would be glad to be corrected if in error, that if the accident rate is to continue to fall, aviation regulators may have to be much tougher, and may have to insist on all those myriad recommendations made by investigators over the years that have not been acted upon, e.g. rear-facing seats, full cargo hold fire detection, smoke hoods, cabin and/or cargo hold fire suppression systems, greater impact friendliness of the airframe, and much more efficient incident reporting.