Re: Growth in air traffic over the next 10 years?

Date:         10 Nov 96 05:29:13 
From:         Pete Mellor <pm@csr.city.ac.uk>
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Thanks to Martyn Thomas <mct@praxis.co.uk> on Mon Nov  4 10:32:41 1996:

> My memory is a forecast of about double, at most. See the CAA Annual Report
> or phone their press office.

>From a different list, someone else responded:-

> I saw Phil Condit's speech to the 1996 World Aviation Congress meeting
> last week, and the figures he showed looked more like a DOUBLING, not a
> 10-fold increase, by the 2006 time frame.  That works out to roughly a 7%
> increase per year.  And he probably got his data from the same place you did.
> <g>  Anyway, a 10-fold increase in traffic by 2006 would require a constant
> year-to-year growth rate of roughly 26%.  Not likely, even if the expected
> increase in Asian air traffic accelerates.
>
> But even a doubling of traffic, with no decrease in the accident rate, would
> start closing in on nearly one accident (not necessarily hull loss) per week.
> Not good for public relations.

So it does look like a *doubling* of volume (which *is* born out by the
statistics).

Any further coments, references, etc., are still welcome. (Thanks, Martyn.
I'll contact the CAA.)

Peter Mellor, Centre for Software Reliability, City University, Northampton
Square, London EC1V 0HB, UK. Tel: +44 (171) 477-8422, Fax: +44 (171) 477-8585
E-mail: p.mellor@csr.city.ac.uk
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