Re: TWA flight 800 and the missile theory

From: (Dwayne Allen Day)
Organization: The George Washington University, Washington DC
Date:         29 Jul 96 13:24:38 
References:   1 2 3
Followups:    1
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Bob Niland ( wrote:
: The talking heads (I hesitate to to call them "reporters") are telling
: us that the NTSB/FBI have a short list of three possible causes that
: have not been ruled out (as of 7/26/96).  The way they are worded
: suggests that being struck by, say, a meterorite, has been ruled out.
: Has it?  If so, how?

When someone crashes their car into a tree late at night and there's no
indication of alcohol in the blood stream do the police instantly suspect
murder?  No.  They start with the most likely causes, such as someone
falling asleep at the wheel.

When conducting an accident investigation, one does not start with an
infinite list of possibilities and then proceed to check them off.  One
starts with the most likely possibilities, based upon previous
experience.  That is one reason why catastrophic failure has not been
ruled out, but is considered unlikely--such a totally sudden catastrophic
failure has never been experienced with the 747 before, so it seems
unlikely.  Bombs, however, have indeed caused totally sudden catastrophic
events on airplanes, including 747s--so it is therefore at the top of the

This is basic logic.


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