Re: Lufthansa Chair sees no superjumbos

From:         rna@gsb-mailhost.stanford.edu (Robert Ashcroft)
Organization: Stanford University, CA 94305, USA
Date:         07 Jul 95 03:25:00 
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In article <airliners.1995.947@ohare.Chicago.COM>,
Michael T. Palmer <m.t.palmer@larc.nasa.gov> wrote:
>rna@status.Stanford.EDU (Robert Ashcroft) wrote:
>
>>Timothy Francis Mcdonough <tfm0001@jove.acs.unt.edu> wrote:
>>>HSCT will no doubt contribute to the demise of the superjumbo.
>
>>The new generation SST?  Don't hold your breath.  The economics of that
>>are even more dismal.  Without massive government aid this thing won't
>>get beyond the pipe-dream stage.  Governments are broke, and the
>>environmentalists will scream bloody murder about the effects on such
>>a thing on the ozone layer.

>While there are certainly some major technical challenges to be met,
>and I agree that holding your breath until product launch might make
>Dr. Kevorkian's day, many high-level people at the companies involved
>are indeed planning to produce this aircraft.  And they won't do it
>with "massive government aid."  The joint NASA/industry HSR program is
>all there is in terms of gov't funding, and it's a very small part.

Well, I'm already on record as saying I'll be extremely surprised if
we have anything larger than a 747-stretch flying by 2005.  I'll be
even more surprised if there's a commercial second-generation SST
(taking Concorde to be the first-generation) flying by then.

In fact, it seems to me that one day we might see a time when the
Concorde has been retired and there's no longer any commercial
supersonic service.

RNA

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