Re: Future airliners

From:         kls@ohare.Chicago.COM (Karl Swartz)
Organization: Chicago Software Works, Menlo Park, California
Date:         01 Jul 95 02:24:43 
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>While that is certainly true, I believe that the aircraft MGTOW is in the
>range of 1.5 to 2.0 million pounds range as a result of a very long range
>presumed to be needed by these aircraft. I have seen calculations for up
>to 7,000 n.m.

Those weights are rather on the high side -- what I've seen is more
like 1.2 million pounds.  One of the detractions of a 747 stretch is
exactly that it can't handle the weights needed to avoid a range
penalty as compared to the current 747-400.

>I personally believe that it is totally unnecessary to impose such a
>range requirement on these aircraft.  My best estimate is that the
>range should be limited to 3,500 to 5,000 n.m.

How did you happen to come up with those numbers, and what makes you
think that range should be so limited?!

>The LAX manager is on record saying that the airport can handle
>aircraft up to 1.3 million pounds.  A look at the globe shows that it is
>these 3,500 n.m. to 5,000 n.m, routes that will have the greatest need for
>such aircraft.

The biggest market for these aircraft is trans-Pacific, while the
only airlines strongly interested in such a project are British Airways
and Singapore Airlines.  Your 5,000 nm range is insufficient for LAX
to either LHR (BA's hub) or SIN (Singapore's hub).

In fact, I can't think of a single route out of LAX where even 5,000
nm (never mind 3,500) would be sufficient.  Even the easiest useful
route across the Pacific (LAX-NRT) would be pushing the limits of a
5,000 nm range, at least with a decent payload.  Other routes that
might have the density to support such an aircraft are even longer,
e.g., NRT-LHR or NRT-JFK.

Without range, the market for a super-jumbo is virtually nil.

Karl Swartz	|INet
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