Comments on aircraft order update [~ 100 lines]

From:         chuanga@iia2.org (H Andrew Chuang)
Date:         21 Jun 95 02:56:46 
Organization: International Internet Association.
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I got quite a few responses from my last update.  Just to clear some
questions, the update is a list of orders placed directly to the aircraft
manufacturers since Jan 1, 1995.  The list does not include backlogs, i.e.,
orders placed in previous years.  Also, new planes leased from companies
like GPA or ILFC are not included, because they are not actual new orders
for the manufacturers.  However, if GPA or ILFC places an order, I'll
include them.  For example, ILFC is expected to place an order of 40-50
advanced B737 soon.

The past week is probably the most exciting week in the last two or three
years for the commercial aircraft manufacturers.  In addition to the many
commitments made by serveral airlines to order new planes (even MD got
significant number of orders), we also witnessed the long-awaited launch
of the stretched B777-300.  In total, there are 150 orders/commitments from
18 airlines added to this update.  Note, Cathay's seven B777-300s and four
of Korean's eight 777-300s are conversions from previous -200 orders, so
they are not included in the update list.  In addition to the order update,
I am also posting a detailed B777 order list.

During the Paris Air Show, Airbus re-announced Lufthansa's A319 order which
was originally made public around February.  At the time, I did not know it
was only a letter of intent.  Boeing used to only announce orders of which
the contracts had been officially signed.  During the Paris Air Show, most
of Boeing's orders announced were letters of intent.  Following Boeing's
"new practice", I've listed all the commitments which were reported in the
press.  I've also included the Saudia's order.  Hopefully Boeing and MD can
ink the deal before the year's end.  (At the end of the year I'll delete
orders which are not finalized.  For example, both China Airlines and EVA
Air announced that their letters of intent to buy the B777 were far from
being finalized after the B777 de-pressurization incident in which the
Taiwanese Transportation Minister was on-board of the aircraft.)

My Airbus total is one short, and my Boeing total is still eight short.
MD finally has a repectable share of the market.  With the Saudia's order,
MD actually has secured more orders than Airbus.  Although MD won the MD90/
B737 battle in the Saudia's deal, IMHO, it is devastating for the MD11
program that it has lost the majority of the MD11 order (other than the
four MD11Fs) to Boeing's B777.  Without the Saudia's MD11 order, I don't
see much future for the MD11.

IMHO, the A330 program is also in trouble.  In the past two years, there
were a number of A330 cancellations and no new orders.  It looks like it is
destined to be an A300 replacement, which is a very small market.  Four of
the A330 operators, Malaysia, Thai, Garuda, and Korean, are ,or will be,
using the A330 to replace the A300.  Airbus should be desperate to get
Singapore's A310-replacement order which is due to be announced in the next
quarter and it includes something like 17 firm orders plus 16 options.  If
Singapore decides to order the B777 (which is my guess), the next major hope
for the A330 program is probably American Airlines, but AA are not ready to
make any major purchase anytime soon.  If American also shows no interest in
the A330, then I'm predicting that the A330 will become a big flop for
Airbus.  Airbus needs to work extra hard to reach its goal to capture 50% of
the market by the end of the Century.

Lastly, some statistics based on my list (percent is market share):

Boeing's total: 178 + 8 unaccounted for - 20 cancelled orders = 186 (61%)
Airbus's total:  58 + 1                 -  0                  =  59 (19%)
MD's     total:  60 + 0                 -  0                  =  60 (20%)

head-to-head competition:

A319/320 : B737-3/4/5/6/7/800 : MD80/90 = 38 : 92 : 56 (20% : 50% : 30%)
A321     : B757                         = 16 : 10      (62% : 38%)
A300/310 : B767                         =  4 : 12      (25% : 75%)
A330/340 : B777               : MD11    =  0 : 54 :  4 ( 0% : 93% :  7%)

Engine-order watch:

low-bypass (applications: MD80)
P&W  (100%) -  14 installed engines ( 7 MD80s)

20,000 - 35,000 lb thrust (applications: MD90; A319/20/21, A340; B737)
CFMI ( 63%) - 244 installed engines (30 319s, 92 737s)
IAE  ( 31%) - 126 installed engines ( 8 320s,  6 321s, 49 MD90s)
Unknown     -  20 installed engines (10 321s)

37,000 - 43,000 lb thrust (applications: B757)
P&W  ( 40%) -   8 installed engines ( 4 757s)
R-R  ( 60%) -  12 installed engines ( 6 757s)

50,000 - 70,000 lb thrust (applications: A300/310; B747, B767; MD11)
GE   ( 17%) -  14 installed engines ( 1 747,   5 767s)
P&W  ( 48%) -  40 installed engines ( 2 310s,  4 747s,  4 767s,  4 MD11s)
R-R  (  7%) -   6 installed engines ( 3 767s)
Unknown     -  24 installed engines ( 2 310s,  5 747s)

75,000 lb thrust and over (applications: B777)
GE   (  0%) -   0 installed engines
P&W  ( 31%) -  34 installed engines (17 777s)
R-R  ( 11%) -  12 installed engines ( 6 777s)
Unknown     -  62 installed engines (31 777s)


--
  H Andrew Chuang   chuanga@iia2.org