Re: New Aircraft: what's cooking?

From:         M.J.Jennings@amtp.cambridge.ac.uk (Michael Jennings)
Organization: University of Cambridge DAMTP
Date:         22 May 95 12:50:57 
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In article <airliners.1995.599@ohare.Chicago.COM>,
R. & L. Chilukuri <lchiluku@ucsd.edu> wrote:
>What new aircraft are being planned? Who has the resources to invest in
>these new programs?
>
>I have heard of the New Small Aircraft (NSA) being planned by a far
>eastern consortium (China, Korea, India). They are looking for design
>assistance from established airframers such as Boeing, Airbus and Daimler
>(Daimler now owns Fokker?).
>
>What else is cooking? Commercial aviation is due to rebound soon.
>Passenger traffic will increase, and airlines will invest in new
>equipment. But which airframers are capable of responding to these
>new demands?
>
>How about discussions on these or related issues?
>
	As far as all new aircraft, there doesn't seem to be much coming
at the moment. Various consortia are talking about a new big aircraft
somewhere between 600-1000 seats, but few airlines want them. In fact
only British Airways and Singapore Airlines seem really interested.
Normally one would expect the Japanese airlines to buy a few also, but the
combination of the Japanese economy being in a bad way, the yen being
absurdly overvalued and the airlines being absurdly badly managed means
that they are unlikely to at the moment. My guess is that we may well see
a stretched 747 of some sort in order to make BA happy, but we are very
unlikely to see an all new aircraft. I have also heard of the possibility of
a Boeing led consortium building a 100 seater, but this doesn't seem that
likely.
	As for derivatives, the action seems to be in the 777/A330/A340
area of the market. Boeing is apparently talking with American about a
shortened/long range version of the 777. (Does anyone know enough of the
technical details to be able to tell whether the airframe is suited to
this. It sounds almost like the 747SP to me, which was a white elephant).
Again I suspect that Boeing might be inclined to build it, given the
size and importance of the airline involved, and the fact that Airbus is
talking about something similar (the A340-8000).  Lufthansa apparently
wants a larger 777. Since Boeing have been talking about this almost
since the 777 was launched, I am virtually sure it will be built sooner
or later.
	Airbus has been talking about a longer range A330 as well as the
ultra long range A340. Stretched versions of both planes also get talked
about from time to time. Airbus was also talking about a further stretched
version of the A321 (the A322) to tackle the 757 market, but they seem to
have shelved this for the moment.
	To me the Boeing plans seem more market driven than the Airbus ones,
or at least the name of an airline usually gets mentioned in the context
of those from Boeing, and less frequently in those from Airbus. My guess
is that we will see several further versions of the 777, possibly a stretched
747, and some new derivative of the A330 or A340 from Airbus, although
don't ask me which one.

	Michael.
--
Michael Jennings
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
The University of Cambridge. 		mjj12@damtp.cambridge.ac.uk

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