Re: New Aircraft: what's cooking?

From:         chuanga@iia2.org
Organization: International Internet Association.
Date:         17 May 95 01:06:25 
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In article <airliners.1995.599@ohare.chicago.com>,
R. & L. Chilukuri <lchiluku@ucsd.edu> wrote:
>What new aircraft are being planned? Who has the resources to invest in
>these new programs?

A totally new aircraft project requires a large amount of investment.
In the next few years, most new aircraft will probably be derivatives.
The only exception is regional jet.  Various regional jet projects are
being planned.  However, there will be a lot of global collaborations,
and only one or two will materialize.

>
>I have heard of the New Small Aircraft (NSA) being planned by a far
>eastern consortium (China, Korea, India).  They are looking for design
>assistance from established airframers such as Boeing, Airbus and Daimler

NSA is Boeing's "little baby."  Boeing is courting many potential Asian
partners, especially the Japanese which is also developing its own YSX.
Boeing (as well as the Japanese) are more interested in an 80-100-seat
regional jet.  The Samsung-led Sino-Korean consortium is more interested
in an 100-120-seat regional jet.  Thus, they are not too happy about the
B737-600 launch and are seriously considering cooperating with DASA/Fokker.
I believe they have already signed a Memorandum of Understanding, but an
MOU doesn't guarantee that it will happen.  Note that the MD95 is also
competing for the same market, and some Korean and Chinese companies are
also major sub-contractors for the MD95 which is yet to be launched.

>(Daimler now owns Fokker?).

Daimler Aerospace (DASA) owns 50% of Fokker.

>
>What else is cooking?

For Boeing: almost certain: B777B-plus, B777 Stretched,
            others:         B777C, NSA, B747X, B757-300, B767ERY
For Airbus: just launched:  A321-200
            almost certain: A340-8000, A340-400, A330-400
            others:         A3XX
(Airbus recently completed a study and said that there would not be
 enough demand to justify the launch of a 600-800-seat aircraft).
For MD:     almost certain: MD95
            others:         MD11 Twin, MD12

>Commercial aviation is due to rebound soon.
>Passenger traffic will increase, and airlines will invest in new
>equipment. But which airframers are capable of responding to these
>new demands?

It's easier to answer which will be the least capable of responding: MD.

--
  H Andrew Chuang   chuanga@iia2.org