B777 and engine manufacturers

From:         Andrew Chuang <chuanga@iia.org>
Date:         06 Feb 95 02:45:19 
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A week or two ago, when I was preparing the B777 order list for the
rec.travel.air group,  I have noticed that most of the airlines which
ordered the B-market model selected the GE90.  Today (Feb 5), Hartford
Courant started a three-part report on the B777.  (United Technologies'
headquarters is in Hartford, and Pratt & Whitney is located across the
Connecticut River in East Hartford.)  In the report, my earlier observation
was confirmed.  Even though GE had captured only 31% of the total B777
orders (49% for P&W and 20% for R-R), GE's share for the B-market model was
60%.

It was reported in the article that P&W was betting on Boeing's estimation
that out of the 1,100 B777s forecasted to be sold, only 200 would be the
long-range (I assumed it meant the C-market) model.  I'm a little surprised
by the estimation.  IMHO, I really think the future for the B777 is the
B747-100/200 replacement market, yet, it was not really mentioned in the
article.  I would think the C-market model and a medium-range stretched B777
will require the same engine thrust (>100K lb of thrust).  If the market
prediction by Boeing is way off, then P&W may face the same dilemma it
had at the end of the JT9D development.

In the article, it was reported that the PW4804 was well-suited for
short-haul operations, the Trent 800 for medium-haul, and the GE90 for
long-range operations.  It was also reported that P&W had spent $500 million
in developing the PW4084, while GE had spent $1.5 billion in developing the
GE90.

Lastly, I have heard several times that the P&W management thought that the
market was simply not large enough for three competitors, and a consolidation
was inevitable.  However, it's hard for me to envision any of the three
engine manufacturers folded or be absorbed.

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         |  H Andrew Chuang    chuanga@iia.org  |
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