747 forced ocean landings -- survival odds

From:         JW6191A@american.edu
Date:         14 Dec 94 02:22:36 
Organization: The American University
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There's a blazing discussion underway in rec.aviation.misc about
forced ocean landings of 747s.  At issue are the odds of the plane
staying in one piece, how long it would stay afloat and whether it
would begin to leak through hull weep holes or other openings,
whether or not passengers would be better off remaining in the cabin
or proceeding to life rafts, etc, etc.
 
Would someone with knowledge of this issue please make a posting
to rec.aviation.misc and share some insight?
 
Many thanks!