From:Pete Mellor <pm@csr.city.ac.uk>Date:24 Aug 94 14:02:00References:1

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vac@air16.larc.nasa.gov (Victor A. Carreno) on 21 Aug 94 15:35:10 calculates the probability of loss of hull due to two engines out independently on a twin-jet (with GE CF6-80C2 engines) as:- > 2.88 x 10^(-10) probability of airplane loss per flight This is very much better than the certified probability of losing both engines, which is 10^(-9) per flight hour, as with other critical systems. The point of the 10^(-9) figure is that, given 100 critical systems on board (pessimistic) the probability of hull loss due to failure of any critical system should be no more than 10^(-7) per flight hour, which is *roughly* the actual rate for hull loss *due to all system causes*. It would be interesting to see the actual rate of hull loss *due to engine failure* for comparison. I would assume that, in compiling such statistics, manufacturers would omit accidents due to environmental factors, e.g., bird-strike or flying over active volcanoes. Pete ---- Peter Mellor, Centre for Software Reliability, City University, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB Tel: +44 (71) 477-8422, Fax.: +44 (71) 477-8585, E-mail (JANET): p.mellor@csr.city.ac.uk -----------------------------------------------------------------------------