Re: new jetliner developments

From:         data@beast.math.ualberta.ca (Daryle A. Tilroe)
Organization: University of Alberta, Dept. of Mathematics
Date:         04 Mar 93 19:45:13 PST
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In article <airliners.1993.226@ohare.Chicago.COM> spagiola@FRI-nxt-Pagiola.Stanford.EDU (Stefano Pagiola) writes:
>Tobias Henry Lutterodt writes:
>
>> A340:  Will probably flop because airlines will soon be
>> able to by two engined aircraft to do the same job;  With
>> today's reliablity, two are safer  than four!;

If my memory serves me a four engined aircraft is safer than two at HIGHER
engine reliability.  I believe that four engines are safer at any p failure
less than one third (which is VERY unreliable).  Thus for any reasonable
failure rate four engines are better than two.  BTW I am dreging this up from
my recollection of a statistics course many years ago so if anyone else
remembers this problem feel free to comfirm or dispute.


All the usual disclaimers.