new jetliner developments

From:         Tobias Henry Lutterodt <luterodt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU>
Date:         02 Mar 93 22:36:28 PST
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My  own assessments of aircraft presently under development:

A321:  Will be a mild success but will have trouble attracting non-A320 customers because of the performance and versatility of the 757

A330:  Likely to be a big success as long as it targets airlines who don't 
need the size and range of the 777;  could be the next 767 of the Atlantic

A340:  Will probably flop because airlines will soon be able to by two 
engined aircraft to do the same job;  With today's reliablity, two are safer 
than four!;  The aircraft is also underpowered and the cost and weight of 
equipping it with RB211-535's or PW2000's will be unacceptable;  The 
-200 may find a niche in very long range specialty markets like  all first class London-Perth service or something similar;

Boeing 777:  It's in a very hard fought three-way battle, but the aircraft is 
likely to attract the stronger, more stable carriers (as it already has) and 
in the long run, it will be the market leader;  Perhaps it is a little too big, 
though, for the market it seeks;

MD-90:  Will be stillborn unless Douglas is much more aggressive about 
finding new customers;  Nevertheless, the aircraft has distinct 
advantages over its competitors (noise, pax comfort, ...);

Fokker 70:  This aircraft needs customers!;  It's hard to believe that this 
aircraft with its Fokker 100 wing and other systems from the larger aircraft 
will be able to compete with, say, a Canadair RJ Stretch;  But, the 
simplicity of the change from the 100 will mean that it only needs a few 
sales to make money for Fokker;  This will be an interesting aircraft to 
follow;

Russian re-engined aircraft (IL-96,Tu-204):  The designs are presumably 
of quality similar to Boeing/Airbus, and with Western avionics, interiors, 
engines, etc., AND with competent marketing, these aircraft should be 
very appealing, especially to third-world and start-up carriers;  It will be 
interesting to see if the current big 3 manufacturers try to keep these 
aircraft out;

These are a summary of my opinions...I'd like to see comments and reactions
on the newsgroup.

Toby
(The Commercial Aviation Nut)