Re: Economics of new vs. older planes

From:         kls@ohare.Chicago.COM (Karl Swartz)
Organization: Chicago Software Works
Date:         06 Jan 93 04:26:43 PST
References:   1 2 3
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In article <airliners.1993.5@ohare.Chicago.COM> Geoff.Miller@Corp.Sun.COM (Geoff Miller) writes:
>In article <airliners.1992.203@ohare.Chicago.COM> (Terrell D. Drinkard) writes:

>>Unfortunately for 727 owners, they are stage two noise compliant.  This
>>means that they will no longer be allowed to operate in the domestic US 
>>after 2000 or so.  Europe is much the same.  This short economic life must
>>be take into account before purchasing our hypothetical 727.

>Can't they be made Stage III compliant with hush kits?

Yes, but that adds a performance/fuel consumption penalty on top of
that already paid for having a third engine as well as older and less
efficient engines and wings.  With fuel a major cost these days many
airlines don't seem to find this all that attractive.

>Also, either UPS or FedEx are reengining their 727s with Rolls-Royce Tays, 
>which are Stage III compliant and more fuel efficient than the JT8Ds to boot.

UPS at least has them.  The conversions are being done by Dee Howard
and are fairly noticeable -- I saw one at San Antonio last summer.
But as I recall the price-tag is in the $15 million range, nearly half
the price of a brand-new replacement.  When you figure that a typical
727 airframe has perhaps half of its economic life remaining this is
starting to look like a dead heat.  Now consider that three Tays are
likely, though by no means certain, to use more fuel and require more
maintenance expense.

Another factor is crew -- all the potential 727 replacements have only
two-person cockpits vs. three on the 727.  I believe someone (perhaps
Dee Howard) is offering a glass cockpit for the 727 in conjunction
with a re-engining though this of course would add significantly to
the cost, and so far I'm not aware of any having been so converted.

Looking at the major passenger carriers, most seem to be voting for
replacement and not upgrades.  The only notable exception that comes
to mind is that Delta recently ordered 15 hush kits for 727s used on
the northeast shuttle service.

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