Re: Delta Air Lines fleet renewal

From:         dwl@panix.com (David W. Levine)
Date:         26 Mar 1997 18:15:42 GMT
Organization: PANIX Public Access Internet and Unix, NYC
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In <5h6k8u$6sa@kragar.kei.com> dorfman@netcom.com (Merlin Dorfman) writes:

>H Andrew Chuang (Chuanga@cris.com) wrote:

>: The MD-90 is doomed.  The MD-95 does not have a bright future, either.

>     I expect the first thing Boeing will do is stop production of all
>McDonnell Douglas airliners.  To produce more than one in any category
>would only be competing with themselves, and to kill a Boeing product
>would be admitting the McD aircraft is better...unlikely at best.

Boeing certainly won't kill production of lines which are making money and
have contractural obligations to fulfill. Further, given the complex deals
which are associated with MD-8x and MD-90 production in China are such
that they will A) take time to unwind, and B) may not be in Boeing's best
interest to unwind untli they have something to replace them with. I
expect that we will see the MD-8x and MD-90 lines phased out over the next
five to ten years, but not in an instant, and only as Boeing has the right
deals in place to follow up in terms of production sharing and keeping
cusomers and key MCD partners happy.

I'd imagine the MD-11 is dead, as soon as existing production phases down,
unless Boeing sees enough money to be had in a pure freight verson to keep
the line poen. But on he whole it duplicates the 767 and 777 lines far too
much and far to poorly to have future as a commercial passanger airlineer.

The MD-95 is more interesting. Boeing doesn'thave anything that fills that
niche. On the other hand, Boeing might be better off going from scratch
with a plane built around the 50-120 seat market than pushing the MD-95
which is really about as small as it's going to get. I could easily see
Beoing deciding to base such an effort out of Long Beach.

	- David