Re: FOKKER BANKRUPTCY?

From:         Tom Speer <speer%do.edw@mhs.elan.af.mil>
Date:         16 Feb 1996 14:19:23 -0800
Organization: 412th Test Wing / TSFF
References:   1 2 3
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rna@gsb-crown.Stanford.EDU (Robert Ashcroft) wrote:
>...
>On the other hand, Samsung and the Chinese seem determined to build the
>AE100, despite the fact that it has a snowball's chance in hell of being
>an economic success and will simply end up adding more capacity to an
>industry that already has far too much.
>...

I believe there's a lot more here than the AE100.  Samsung is licence 
building F-16's at Sacheon.  In Changwon, Daewoo is getting a very 
educational experience (to say the least) in their effort to develop the 
KTX-1 trainer.  Korea is determined to build an indigenous aerospace 
industry to compete with the Japanese and other Pacific rim countries.  They 
will not be content to be subcontractors.  Their efforts to produce new 
designs from scratch are showing them just how much they have to learn and 
how valuable is the expertise of those that have designed aircraft before.  
They know that the KTX-1, a turboprop military trainer, is entering an 
already over crowded field that will be dominated in the future by the Swiss 
PC9/Beech MkII that was selected for the USAF JPATS competition.  Yet, they 
persist because they view it as an essential learning experience.  The AE100 
may be in the same category.

Placed in this light, a Fokker acquisition would be a major strategic 
advance for Samsung.  It gives them the expertise they need and leapfrogs 
them over Daewoo (who also builds major parts of the F-16).  It turns a 
potential competitor into a production asset for them.

One prize in all this might be the KTX-2, a supersonic military trainer.  
Not only will the ROK Air Force need such an airplane, once the T-38 is 
finally put out to pasture, there may not be anyone else that has developed 
a supersonic trainer on the market.  

Bottom line is, you can't underestimate the Korean determination to be a 
player in aerospace, civil and military.  Profit may well be the least of 
their motivations at this point.

Cheers,

Tom Speer