Re: and the winner is.....

From:         H Andrew Chuang <chuanga@cris.com>
Organization: Concentric Internet Services
Date:         Sat, 10 Jul 1999 12:51:41 GMT
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Matt:

Sounds like you're doing a promo for GE.  ;-) While many of your
points are valid, I think they are a bit exaggerated.  IMHO, the
single biggest advantage that GE has is its deep pocket.  In
addition, GE's engine services have matured and well-established
that any after-market contracts can easily be packaged with
the aircraft orders.  Neither P&W nor R-R can compete on this
front.  Since Boeing has to be able to convince existing non-GE
B777 operators to by the GE90-powered B777X, nicely-packaged
after-market contracts can help the marketing process, especially
to smaller operators.  I won't be surprised that initially a lot
of the orders will go through GE Capital Aviation Services.

If GE does deliver, the GE90-powered B777 will rule.  If GE doesn't,
Boeing once again will leave a hole for Airbus to attack
(previously, they left the B727-replacement market unattended for
too long). 

James Matthew Weber wrote:
> 
> It has been announced that the engine contract for the 777-200/-300X
> has gone to General Electric.
> 
> I suspect there are several reasons this has happened:
> 
> 1). By most accounts, the GE90 core is probably good for about 120,000
> pounds thrust. The GE90 can get to the required 110-115,000 pound
> thrust needed for these aircraft much more easily than the Trent, and
> it was clear that a PW4000 design was a stretch to get to the
> PW4098.Any larger engine was going to be a major exercise, and if
> Boeing wanted an early in service date, a problem as well. My guess is
> Boeing is about to come after the A340-500/600 with a vengeance, and a
> competitive in service date was a requirement.
> 
> GE can probably  get there sooner and probably at lower cost than
> either RR or PW. It is equally clear that there will probably be a
> need for larger engines, and even at 110,000 to 115,000 pounds there
> is still some growth left in the GE90. It is doubtful that there would
> be anything left in a 110,000 pound Trent 800.
> 
> 2). Fuel economy. The intended market for the 777X is very long range,
> and the GE90 is the most fuel efficient engine in the sky today, and
> GE promises further improvements in the 1-2% range. On an ultra long
> range aircraft Fuel economy is serious business, and a 2% advantage in
> fuel burn over a 7000 mile sector is BIG revenue over the life of the
> airframe.
> 
> 3). While the GE90 had a serious weight penalty relative to the
> competition, as the thrust on the PW engines and on the RR engines has
> been increased, this penalty has diminished. In fact the PW4098 and
> GE90  weights are only a few hundred pounds different, and a very
> large portion of the weight advantage the Trent 800 enjoyed over the
> GE90 has also disappeared.
> 
> The combination of early delivery, good fuel economy, and competitive
> engine shipset weight is tough to argue with.
> 
> The reported problems with the A340-500, and the improvements in the
> Asian Economy suggest that  777X launch with an in service date very
> close the A340-500/600 is probably very near.
> 
> It will obviously raise the bar on the A3XX as well, as Airbus will
> have to offer a substantial direct cost improvement relative to the
> 777X family, as opposed to the 747-400. The problem with very long
> running programs is the goal posts tend to get moved, and I suspect
> that is part of  the A3XX problem. My guess is that if A3XX is not
> lauched before 777X, A3XX will never be launched in anything
> resembling the current form..
> 
> No doubt all of  this is causing a certain level of anxiety at Airbus
> Industries...
> 
> My opinions anyway..